Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant will be joking around all the way to the 2011-12 NBA championship. Silva On Sports has the Thunder beating the Miami Heat in seven games in the Finals. (AP PHOTO)
After a frenetic, hurried regular season, the NBA’s postseason tips off Saturday. Unlike my preseason awards picks, my preseason playoff picks were, more or less, the same. I’m actually quite proud. Kind of.
In the East, I picked, in order: Chicago, Miami, New York, Indiana, Atlanta, Orlando, Boston, Philadelphia. In reality, it was, in order: Chicago, Miami, Indiana, Boston, Atlanta, Orlando, New York, Philadelphia. I got the teams right, just the seeding varied through the middle of the pack. Of course, the East should have been the easiest conference to pick.
In the West, I picked, in order: Oklahoma City, Dallas, the Clippers, Portland, Memphis, the Lakers, San Antonio, New Orleans. In reality, it was, in order: San Antonio, Oklahoma City, the Lakers, Memphis, the Clippers, Denver, Dallas, Utah. I whiffed completely on the Hornets and really underrated Denver. I also completely underrated the Spurs, and I obviously missed the boat on Portland.
So, here’s what we’re looking at in the first round matchups: in the East, it’s (1) Chicago vs. (8) Philadelphia, (2) Miami vs. (7) New York, (3) Indiana vs. (6) Orlando and (4) Boston vs. (5) Atlanta. In the West, it’s (1) San Antonio vs. (8) Utah, (2) Oklahoma City vs. (7) Dallas, (3) the Lakers vs. (6) Denver, (4) Memphis vs. (5) the Clippers.
In my preseason picks, I chose Oklahoma City and Chicago to square off in the Finals. I’m changing that. Not knowing exactly how healthy Derrick Rose and Rip Hamilton really are for the Bulls (I think they’re far from 100 percent, really), I’m going with a Oklahoma City-Miami Finals, with the Thunder (who I did pick to win it all) prevailing. As badly as I would like to see LeBron James get his ring, there is simply not enough quality depth around him. Thunder get by the Heat in 7.
But that’s still quite a ways down the road. Here are my picks for the first-round matchups:
EAST
(1) CHICAGO BULLS vs. (8) PHILADELPHIA 76ERS … season series: 2-1, Chicago … SILVA’S PICK: BULLS IN 5
The Bulls are the best defensive team in the NBA, and while I think they’ll fall a lot sooner in these playoffs than many might think (as in, the second round), it won’t be against the Sixers. To beat the Bulls, Philadelphia will have to thrive in transition, and while that might work enough to earn a win, it won’t be enough over the course of a series. You have to win in the halfcourt in the playoffs, and Philly simply can’t. Chicago is too good defensively. It will force Philadelphia into the halfcourt and into shooting jumpers. Philly’s Evan Turner said he would rather have the Bulls than to play Miami in the first round. Now he’s got them. He won’t like the outcome. The Bulls will roll, and they would roll even if Derrick Rose and Rip Hamilton weren’t playing. I just don’t care much for the Sixers.
(2) MIAMI HEAT VS. (7) NEW YORK KNICKS … season series: 3-0, Miami … SILVA’S PICK: HEAT IN 6
The Heat are vulnerable against teams that can shoot the 3, which New York does, and quite well. However, the playoffs are won around the rim, and that’s where Miami will hurt the Knicks. Miami averaged almost three more free-throw attempts than the Knicks in their games this season, and almost SEVEN more rebounds per game. I expect the Knicks to catch fire and win a couple of games, but the Heat will be too much in the paint and in transition, capitalizing on the long misses from whenever New York does miss from distance. The key matchup in this one will be Amare Stoudemire-Chris Bosh. If Stoudemire can win that matchup, things will get interesting, but that is a favorable matchup for Bosh, and I assume the Heat know that. I expect a steady dose of Bosh touches, and I expect LeBron James to absolutely have a field day against the Knicks. He knows these playoffs are his for the taking, and it starts with a marquee matchup in the Big Apple.
(3) INDIANA PACERS VS. (6) ORLANDO MAGIC … season series: 3-1, Orlando … SILVA’S PICK: PACERS IN 6
Even with Dwight Howard unavailable for the Magic, I still think Orlando will steal a couple of games. Stan Van Gundy is a brilliant coach, and I think the Pacers will let their guard down a few times. Indiana has so much pressure on them to simply breeze through this series, that it may tighten late. The Magic should let Roy Hibbert get his points but lock down everyone else. They’ll have to keep hitting from deep, and I think they will, and it’s an absolute must that they keep Indiana off the free-thr0w line and out of transition. It seems like a lot to ask, but I expect the Magic to be playing with a Goliath-sized chip on their shoulder. It still won’t be enough to knock off a deep and balanced Indy squad, however.
(4) BOSTON CELTICS VS. (5) ATLANTA HAWKS … season series: 2-1, Boston … SILVA’S PICK: CELTICS IN 5
The Hawks not having Al Horford is just as essential as the Magic not having Dwight Howard. Horford offers a versatile power dynamic for the Hawks that they otherwise lack, and now they have no interior game and no threat to pull Boston’s bigs away from the basket, meaning Kevin Garnett, Brandon Bass and Greg Steimsma can just sit back, protect the rim and rebound. If Atlanta is to upset Boston, it will have to from the perimeter, and that’s not happening with the best defensive backcourt in the playoffs wearing the green and white. Expect to see a breakout playoff debut for Avery Bradley, as well as a field day for Rajon Rondo. Easy pickin’s for the Celtics.
WEST
(1) SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS. (8) UTAH JAZZ … season series: 3-1, San Antonio … SILVA’S PICK: JAZZ IN 7
Ah, yes, my upset special. I can hear Spurs fans frothing at the mouth right now. But let’s take the facts: The Spurs struggle against size. Prime example is their 4-2 ouster to Memphis in last year’s first round of the playoffs. In fact, the situation is eerily similar – last year, the Spurs were the 1 seed; Memphis was the 8 seed. No one even dared giving the Grizzlies a shot. Like deja vu. Utah has the luxury of throwing big after big after big at the Spurs: Al Jefferson, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, Enes Kanter. All are mobile bigs with height, not unlike Memphis’ Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. I expect Utah to make a high percentage of its shots, with its inside attack, and limiting the Spurs’ transition opportunities. Having size also means this: Utah won’t have to double team a Tim Duncan, for instance, and can afford to stick with the Spurs’ plethora of shooters, which is absolutely crucial. San Antonio will have to win this series with its perimeter firepower, and with Devin Harris playing out of his mind lately, I don’t exactly expect a cakewalk for Tony Parker. Not enough people are giving Utah credit. The young club stepped up and rose to the occasion in the last month to earn the last playoff spot, beating teams with its interior depth and timely shooting. Almost every game over the course of April was a playoff game for Utah, and it survived. The Jazz are smart and don’t beat themselves. This is a scary matchup for the Spurs.
(2) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER VS. (7) DALLAS MAVERICKS … season series: 3-1, Oklahoma City … SILVA’S PICK: THUNDER IN 5
The Thunder shall roll (no pun intended) through this one. Too much firepower for Oklahoma City. The biggest thing is that the Thunder have gotten to the free-throw line with ease against the Mavs, averaging 31 attempts to Dallas’ 19 this season. The Mavericks’ have no answer for the Thunder, and OKC knows it can attack the rim at will against Dallas. Oklahoma City is playing with something to prove. This will be Russell Westbrook’s series to take control of, and he will. The defending champs will go out with a whimper.
(3) LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS. (6) DENVER NUGGETS … season series: 3-1, Los Angeles … SILVA’S PICK: LAKERS IN 6
Tempted to go with another upset here, but the playoffs are won by rebounding and defense, and Los Angeles certainly owns those facets in this series. The Lakers will play this series without their best perimeter defender in Metta World Peace, and that could hurt them against the likes of Danilo Gallinari and Al Harrington. Fortunately, the Nuggets don’t have too much size, and their beloved transition attack doesn’t win playoff series’. Ramon Sessions and Andrew Bynum will have to play big, and I expect they will. The Lakers will beast on the boards (they outrebounded Denver by 6.5 caroms in their games this season) and they held the Nuggets to a measly 22.6% marksmanship from 3. To beat the Lakers, you have to be able to hit from the outside since odds are you won’t get anything going inside against the likes of Bynum and Gasol. Not good for Denver.
(4) MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS. (5) LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS … season series: 2-1, Memphis … SILVA’S PICK: GRIZZLIES IN 6
Memphis is my darkhorse in the West. Too much size. Too much defense. Great perimeter play. It’s too much of a headache to try to game-plan stopping Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol on the inside, AND Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo on the perimeter. I really like Memphis; it would really not surprise me at all to see them make a run to the Finals. They’re that good. The Clippers are a solid team, but they’re just not ready. DeAndre Jordan has been too off and on this season, and I don’t feel too secure having to rely upon the likes of Reggie Evans, Nick Young and Randy Foye. I also don’t expect Blake Griffin to counter the Grizzlies’ physical nature; in fact, I think Memphis could very easily take Griffin off his game early and often if it so desires. The only Clipper I expect to rise up is Chris Paul, but it won’t be nearly enough. This Grizzlies team is loaded, and their identity plays perfectly to playoff success.